Zinc saw strong performance in 2024, but was based on speculation rather than supply and demand fundamentals.
Zinc is predominantly used to make galvanized steel, which is destined for the construction and manufacturing sectors. The past several years have seen these industries largely depressed due to high inflation and high interest rates.
What helped the base metal over the past year is that weak demand was met with weak mining supply.
What could a new administration in the White House or new economic stimulus measures in China mean for zinc markets? Which factors should investors be considering in 2025?
How will Trump’s return impact the zinc market?
One of the big stories of 2025 is US President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. This event could have a broad impact across several industries and significant implications for the resource sector.
Trump ran on a platform with conflicting outcomes. On one hand, he promised improved permitting timelines for projects costing above US$1 billion, which could make the US more attractive to companies seeking new base metal projects.
One such project that may be supported by improved permitting is South32’s (OTC Pink:SHTLF,ASX:S32) Hermosa project near Tucson, Arizona. The project has already seen improved permitting timelines through the US Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council, and at over US$2 billion in cost, it would also qualify under the proposed change in permitting from the incoming administration.
Additionally, his promise to free up federal lands for new housing could be a boon for zinc producers as it would mean greater demand for galvanized steel products. The question is how much and how fast would new housing starts be available?
On the other hand, his platform also heavily favored imposing new tariffs, which could add fresh inflationary pressures to the economy.
While it’s still uncertain if there will be any carve-outs for certain industries, higher costs for materials destined for homebuilders could significantly weaken demand for new homes regardless of the federal support the administration makes available.
“What’s happened (in 2024) is that China’s had very weak domestic demand for a lot of base metals, but it’s been saved by the export side, so they’ll come under threat more next year with the tariff barriers going up,” he said.
Smith also suggested that there may not be much concern over the proposed tariffs, saying, “Trump’s bark is worse than his bite, so I don’t think it’s going to be particularly bad.” However, Smith noted that China would be exposed regardless if the administration ultimately chooses to raise tariffs.
This was backed up by AMT Insight research shared by Smith on January 9. The group pointed out that the president has limited power to drive markets, and there may be a disconnect between his rhetoric and the policy he can implement as president. Bigger factors for setting prices are likely to be global in nature.
Even so, Smith implied that China is already working to mitigate its risk of incoming tariffs by expanding manufacturing in places like Mexico and Vietnam. This would allow it to avoid the higher prices that will be imposed on goods produced directly in China.
For many base metals, though, he points out that, given how large a segment of the sector they control, it’s very hard to avoid materials coming from China, which has led to some concern about increasing domestic supply.
“It’s very difficult to build new smelters. So, China normally produces a lot of metal but also manufactured goods. The typical route is manufactured goods end up in the US, so there’s been some attempts to build out new capacity in the US, but it’s really very slow,” Smith said.
What is the supply and demand situation expected to be like?
“By far, the biggest implications of the tariffs will be on US premia and the potential knock-on impact they will have on US zinc demand. For now, we do not expect it to impact zinc supply in any way,” Rutland said.
Zinc supply and demand in 2025
The prediction for 2025 is that supply and demand will remain relatively the same as last year.
CRU expects mining supply to grow moderately, at 1.9 percent year over year, with a slight increase in refined output of 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, the group expects demand to grow at 0.3 percent.
Some of this increase may come from Russia as the Overnoye mine in eastern Siberia is expected to start production in 2025.
The mine was originally slated to begin ramping up production in late 2023 but stalled after a fire destroyed critical equipment. Production was reported to have started in November 2024, but Rutland is skeptical.
“Replacing the damaged equipment was complicated by the sanctions imposed on Russia, meaning the mine had to replace the equipment with domestic technology, which we believe is unlikely to have been possible to have achieved to a high standard over such a short time frame,” he said.
Rutland also doesn’t see it making a substantial contribution to zinc supply in 2025 either.
Once the mine is fully operational, it will add an additional 600,000 metric tons of zinc concentrates per year, accounting for 4.5 percent of total zinc production.
Another mine that may begin to ramp up in 2025, is the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine in China. The project has also faced significant delays due to terrain and weather.
“It’s a very large mine in Xinjiang province, which is an extremely difficult place to do mining. It’s very high and subject to extreme weather conditions like sand storms, so it’s been quite a challenge to ramp that mine up as well,” said Smith.
The mine has reserves of over 21 million metric tons and, once in operation, will be the sixth-largest lead-zinc mine in the world.
Investor takeaway
Even though zinc performed well in 2024, its gains weren’t based on supply and demand fundamentals. The market saw weak supply met by weak demand. Barring any rebound in the Chinese or European construction and manufacturing sectors, conditions in 2025 are expected to continue.
For his predictions, Rutland sees the price of zinc remaining flat in the new year and expects it to average US$2,850 per metric ton, with concentrates and refined markets in balance.
Smith shared a similar sentiment with the supply and demand in 2025 but was more optimistic, suggesting the price for zinc could push up to the US$3,300 per metric ton range.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.