The US Federal Reserve held its second meeting of the year from Tuesday (March 18) to Wednesday (March 19) amid broad economic chaos caused by the Trump administration’s tariff threats.
As was widely expected, the central bank left interest rates at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, a range it set at its November meeting; it also said it will slow the pace at which it is shrinking its balance sheet.
In his post-meeting remarks, Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed remains focused on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. He noted that labor market conditions are “solid” and said inflation has moved closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target, although he did acknowledge that it remains “somewhat elevated.”
The US consumer price index (CPI) was up 3 percent year-on-year in January, up slightly from 2.9 percent in December. CPI fell marginally in February to come in at 2.8 percent. The US personal consumption expenditures price index has also remained relatively flat, with a 2.5 percent year-on-year rise in January versus December’s 2.6 percent.
The sticky inflation numbers come against a backdrop of global uncertainty as US President Donald Trump implements and threatens tariff action. Tariffs could drive consumer prices higher on critical goods for US consumers, including new gasoline, homes and cars, as the US relies on oil, lumber and steel imports from Canada.
Powell noted that uncertainty is running high with Trump now in office, saying that his administration is making policy changes in four key areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation.
“It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and the path of monetary policy. While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade, uncertainty around changes and their economic outlook is high,” Powell said, adding that the Fed is focusing on ‘separating the signal from the noise.’
The Fed will adjust its policy based on incoming data, and is well positioned to wait for greater clarity.
When asked by a reporter why the Fed is still predicting two rate cuts this year despite waning consumer sentiment, Powell emphasized that the data shows the economy has remained strong.
“I would tell people that the economy seems to be healthy; we understand that sentiment seems to be quite negative at this time, and that probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration,” he said.
Following the Fed’s announcement, the gold price spiked to a new record high in the US$3,045 per ounce range. The silver price declined for most of the morning, but moved up after the Fed decision, staying above US$33.50 per ounce.
The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) climbed 1.04 percent to 5,675, while the Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) rose 1.25 percent to 19,707 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) moved up 0.83 percent to 41,920.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.